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These Projections Point to COVID Surge in State Starting With Holidays

December 16, 2021

In January, Connecticut could face the biggest increase in infections since late March, but well below last December's numbers, according to projections by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington. Locally, the medical community is also bracing for a COVID-19 surge. "We think (the numbers) are going to continue to rise at the moment and hopefully settle down sometime in early January with a plateau and then see a decline," says Dr. Ajay Kumar, Hartford HealthCare's Chief Clinical Officer. Let's take a look at those projections, town-by-town cases, the number of cases among the vaccinated and the risks associated with being unvaccinated and, finally, the seven-day rolling average of new cases around the world:

COVID in Connecticut Projections

Here are projections through February by IHME Institute. Select the categories from just to below the state name. Just above the graph, "Projection" assumes the current vaccine rate and mask use continues; "Worse" assumes no masks; and "Masks" assumes universal (95 percent) mask use. Hover your cursor or, if using a phone, your finger over the path of the graph to get day-to-day projections.         Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). GBD Compare. Seattle, WA: IHME, University of Washington, 2015. Available from http://vizhub.healthdata.org/gbd-compare.

Connecticut Cases by Town

Hover, or click, over any town to find the case rate per 100,000 population. (Updated each Thursday afternoon.)

Vaccinated vs. Unvaccinated

The state Department of Public Health tracks the number of fully vaccinated people and cases, updating weekly with information on cases among both the vaccinated and unvaccinated. See below for the percent of fully vaccinated with breakthrough cases and the elevated risk among the unvaccinated of testing positive or dying from COVID-19.

Risk Associated with Being Unvaccinated for COVID-19 in Connecticut

Global: COVID-19 Cases

Click on, or hover over, any country in this global map provided by Our World in Data to track daily new cases throughout the pandemic. Use the dropdown menu in the upper right to select specific continents. Hannah Ritchie, Edouard Mathieu, Lucas Rodés-Guirao, Cameron Appel, Charlie Giattino, Esteban Ortiz-Ospina, Joe Hasell, Bobbie Macdonald, Diana Beltekian and Max Roser (2020) - "Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19)". Published online at OurWorldInData.org. Retrieved from: 'https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus' [Online Resource]