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COVID Projections for Connecticut the Next Three Months

July 26, 2021

COVID-19 infections fueled by the Delta variant will accelerate this fall to early-January levels but with far fewer deaths, according to projections by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington.

Here are the number of people the IHME, an independent global health research center, estimates will be infected in the state, including those not tested:

  • Aug. 1: 785.
  • Sept. 1: 1,360.
  • Oct. 1: 2,320.
  • Nov. 1: 3,242.

Note: For the week ending July 25, Connecticut averaged 195 new cases, representing a push upward.

“It’s the summer,” says Dr. Ulysses Wu, Hartford HealthCare’s System Director of Infection Disease and Chief Epidemiologist. “We’re not supposed to have really any cases at this point. A lot of that goes back to things like transmissibility, the Delta variant and our own social behaviors.”

The state’s reopening, in fact, has produced a noticeable drop in safety precautions such as masks and social distancing. More than 80 percent of the population said they used masks through mid-April, according to the IHME. By June 1, 48 percent said they were still using masks. By July 2, the start of the Fourth of July weekend, only 24 percent said they were still using a mask.

Those numbers will continue to drop, says the IHME:

  • Aug. 1: 7 percent.
  • Sept. 1: 5 percent.
  • Oct. 1: 5 percent.
  • Nov. 1: 5 percent.

Here are the IHME’s projections of COVID infections if universal masking remained enforced in the state:

  • Aug. 1: 211.6.
  • Sept. 1: 65.4.
  • Oct. 1: 29.8.
  • Nov. 1: 20.6.

Connecticut has averaged fewer than a death per day related to COVID since mid-June after hitting this year’s peak of 39.5 in early January. IHME estimates the state will again average more than a death per day starting in early September, increasing to 2.7 a day by November.

A Massachusetts Institute of Technology analytics team that partnered with Hartford HealthCare to track and predict the progress of the COVID-19 pandemic last year also offered some month-to-month predictions for active cases and active hospitalizations (shown below in parentheses) in the state:

Aug. 1: 123,798 (6,602).

Sept. 1: 77,952 (4,018).

Oct. 1: 43,910 (2,316).